Potentialities of nautical risk studies based on probabilistic safety analysis

Abstract

Risk management is a fundamental element within safety and nautical studies. at the international level, important advances are being made in terms of methodologies and solutions, which contribute to the effectiveness of these studies. Based on research associated with the design of the access channel to the Port of Mariel, to give operational viability to the ships that will operate in the container terminal located there, innovative and creative solutions have been developed, based on scientific research; addressing the problems related to nautical simulations and risks, from a new perspective.

This paper presents, under a panoramic-multifactorial dimension, the implementation of probabilistic safety analysis in nautical risk studies, derived from the process of simulations in quick time and in real time. a model for the calculation of the risk of dynamic beaching is also presented, based on the entropy of the operating states of the design vessel and the maneuvering configurations, modeled from the design stage under a pre-operational-probabilistic approach.

Results applied to waterway development projects, at national level, that contribute to the increase of the safety of the project vessel are exhibited. The risk levels of each new navigable channel and the maneuvering strategies designed are identified, under safety and risk criteria.